Catching Up: Tough Losses at the Citi Open

By On The Line Tennis · Tactical & Match Analysis · Original Article ↗

The American hard-court swing is here!

It's only been a few days or so (if you count last week as the post-grass clay portion of the season wrapping up) but I'm already struggling to keep up with all the action in Washington (plus the other four tournaments going on elsewhere!).

Believe it or not, the transition back to hard-courts can be pretty jarring and many of our favourite players are feeling the brunt of it.

Today's article picks apart a three notable losses from Washington (and a bonus loss) that may have slipped through your net!

Andy Murray's loss to Mikael Ymer.
Alex De Minaur's loss to Yoshihito Nishioka.
Denis Shapovalov's loss to J.J. Wolf.

Enjoy!

Shades of 2021 for Andy Murray

Us Andy fans thought he was done with this. Last year...

Lost to Egor Gerasimov in straight sets after failing to convert a set point in Montpellier.
Lost to Frances Tiafoe in straight sets after failing to convert two set points in their first set in Winston Salem.
Lost to Hubert Hurkacz in straight sets after failing to convert two set points in their first set in Cincinatti.
Lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas after failing to convert two set points in their second set at the US Open.
Lost to Dominik Koepfer after failing to convert seven match points in Paris.

No such drama this year. No set points ultimately squandered, no missed match points rued.

Until now.

Andy's first-round loss to Mikael Ymer would have been fairly easy to stomach were it not for the FOUR set points that came and went in the first set.

Andy was understandably raging. Maybe not because of losing them alone but because of the nature in which he lost them. There was one missed backhand return on his only set point before the tiebreak started - then the drop-shots rained down...

Andy (top) makes up for missing the return earlier by establishing himself in every one of these points, the advantage in his court as the player with some of the strongest rally temperament ever to grace the game. Ordinarily a drop-shot from Ymer (bottom) would look desperate but Andy doesn't see this one coming.

A decent forehand down the line from Andy (top) is neutralised by defence from Ymer (bottom). No problem, reset the point. Drop-shot again from Ymer but this time Andy's on to it... and he misses the slice pass with the Swede leaning the other way.

*One more well-played drop-shot from Ymer (top) but again Andy's (bottom) on to it in a flash. He picks the wrong way and the racket gets flung. Opportunity well and truly missed.*

When Andy forces his opponents into playing drop-shots in tight situations, he's done something right. Low-percentage shots in otherwise neutral passages of play can only mean he's put the squeeze on his opponent plus he'd fancy himself to have the wheels to make up the ground should this shot get played.

Though he got to two of these drop-shots in enough time, he missed his opportunity to make the pass on both occassions. Even if I hadn't watched the entirety of the match, I can tell you right now he would have been absolutely livid with these misses - this is in no way a set that he should have been losing.

A blip perhaps?

Onwards and upwards Muzzah fam!

Demon vs Match Points

Last week's Atlanta titlist could be forgiven for arriving in Washington a little knackered.

So though we'll give Alex De Minaur a bit of a pass here, his loss to Yoshihito Nishioka was still very close. Not only did the Aussie serve for the match, he failed to convert a match point in the second-set tiebreak before Nishioka ran away with the momentum.

As I recalled De Minaur's infamous match points lost versus Carlos Alcaraz earlier this year in Barcelona, it led me down a bit of a rabbit hole - has De Minaur always had a bit of a spotty relationship with match points?

This one's gonna hurt Demon fans... Here's every match where Alex has failed to win the match after holding at least one match point.

1MP vs Ivo Karlovic in Newport (2018).
2MPs v Feliciano Lopez in Paris (2018).
2MPs v Pierre-Hugues Herbert in Shenzhen (2018).
2MPs v Lloyd Harris in Tokyo (2019).
1MP v Jurij Rodionov in Stuttgart (2021).
1MP v Dominik Koepfer in Rome (2021).
2MPs v Carlos Alcaraz in Barcelona (2022).
2MPs v Cristian Garin at Wimbledon (2022).
1MP v Yoshihito Nishioka in Washington (2022).

That's 9 losses in his 149 matches where he's held match point, a loss-rate of 6.0%...

*Just make the return here Alex (bottom)! Rather than starting the rally, he goes for a low-percentage return over the highest part of the net in an effort to find Nishioka's (top) lefty backhand.*

Big Three comparison for a laugh?

Novak Djokovic = 3/1015 = 0.29%
Rafael Nadal = 8/1071 = 0.74%
Roger Federer = 24/1275 = 1.9%

We're comparing apples with oranges but it's nice to put De Minaur's record into perspective. A little more ruthlessness might be enough to turn what is currently a decent season into a great season...

New Coach for Shapo?

J.J. Wolf defeats Denis Shapovalov in the first-round of the Citi Open.

A headline that doesn't surprise you? Fair enough because Shapo has now lost eight of his last nine matches, his only win coming in five sets against Arthur Rinderknech in the first-round of Wimbledon.

What started off looking like a bit of a slump is turning into a proper worry - things have really gone down hill since he split with Jamie Delgado to pair up with Peter Polansky back in May.

Is there something Polansky could help him do better?

Generally folk give Shapovalov a hard time for being unable to harness the insane power he can generate. Going for winners from positions where forcing an error would have been the percentage play, that sort of stuff. The stats however show that Shapo's return percentage is the area he's been suffering in this year - he's bottom-five for return games won mixing with height-disadvantaged players like Opelka, Isner, Berrettini and Harris.

This does tie into his lack of discipline somewhat - Shapovalov often goes for too much on his returns, failing to find the court often enough off the first ball to pressurise his opponent. I remember Andy Murray playing him earlier this year in Madrid. He specifically targeted the Canadian's forehand, the lack of chip-return gifting him enough unreturned serves to cruise to enough easy service holds to ultimately win the match.

If Shapo were to change coach, my initial instinct would be to persuade Marat Safin to join the team. Safin was a master at controlling his power from the back of the court, didn't shy away from the net when he needed to and would fit right in with Denis's Russian background.

However if Shapo's priority is finding a way into more return points, Safin ain't his man (this wasn't the Russian's forté). I'm thinking someone like... Gaston Gaudio! A one-hander with plenty of return power and consistency, able to perform regardless of the surface (he just couldn't hold serve particularly well off clay!).

That's my pick but it'll be interesting to see what move Shapovalov makes next whatever happens. Good luck Shapo!

Bonus Loss: Ernests Gulbis Explodes

Meanwhile in Europe - nothing to see really, just Lord Gulbis going mental in Italy.

I'll try to keep you all up-to-date with as much as I can over the coming couple of months, whether that's in podcast or article form.

Speak soon!