Last week, Novak Djokovic defeated Daniil Medvedev enroute to a third consecutive title.
Though the match ended in an unexpected Medvedev retirement in the second set, the level from both players was so high that it may still go down as one of the matches the season.
Today, we're looking at how on Earth Djokovic managed to win that second, and ultimately, deciding set.
Medvedev The Machine
Daniil Medvedev looked the best he's looked all year in Astana.
In the match previous to the one with Djokovic, Medvedev had put on an absolute clinic in his 6-1 6-1 win over Roberto Bautista Agut.
Today against Roberto Bautista Agut, Daniil Medvedev hit 315 groundstrokes in his 6-1 6-1 win.
Minus 12 forced errors, Medvedev hit three unforced errors on 303 "makeable" balls.
That's a baseline unforced error-rate of 1 in 100...
Set up the ball machine and give it a go 🤪— Jack Edward (@ontheline_jack) October 7, 2022
Bautista Agut, like Medvedev and Djokovic, likes to use his backhand metronomically to break down his opponent. Medvedev used his to the point of absurdity giving RBA nothing from this corner.
He carried this backhand form into his match against Djokovic. This is his bread and butter against the Serb but it was particularly effective in Astana because of how slow the courts were.
Indoor courts are generally becoming slower on the tour as organisers make them more abrasive (Forget spoke about the courts in Paris, Van De Zandschulp spoke about indoors courts slowing down in general). With the courts in Astana reacting slowly but the balls still reacting fairly quickly off the strings, Medvedev was in heaven.
Serves still travelled quickly enough to win the odd free point.
Groundstrokes trudged through the court making it very difficult to hit a winner.
This made it incredibly difficult for Djokovic to forge an advantage from the baseline.
Though it's maybe considered a greater weapon overall, on a slow-court, Medvedev arguably has the more solid backhand of the pair. Djokovic finished the match with 18 backhand unforced errors - no way through that ad-court battle.
Djokovic tried slicing against the Russian to no avail, failing to force a single error using this play. Where it may have worked in the past, Gilles Cervara has worked tirelessly with Medvedev to make him invulnerable to the slice. He was consistently able to bunt the backhand deep from a low height.
With Medvedev defending out of his forehand corner like a dream, Djokovic could only go into that wing with quality shots.
Djokovic clung onto his service games and red-lined his forehands to force a tiebreak. With Medvedev playing the safer tennis, Djokovic had to come up with something a little riskier to find a way through.
Novak Djokovic and the Drop-Shot
Djokovic's response in the tiebreak (and in a few crucial points leading up to it)?
The drop-shot.
Djokovic has a mixed history with the drop-shot but as a fan you can at least be certain he won't shy away from using it under pressure. So whether it was the right or the wrong play, Djokovic knew he could execute to the appropriate level going into a pressure-filled tiebreak.
The gutsiest example of a Djokovic drop-shot I could think of. He sure can deliver under pressure.
It was an interesting shot-choice because the Djokovic/Medvedev rivalry has very rarely hinged on the drop-shot.
Two matches come to mind...
The conditions were perfect for the drop-shot in Monte Carlo in 2019 but Djokovic couldn't execute frequently enough (hit a drop-shot unforced error 30% of the time). He attempted the shot in 1 in 9 points, the most attempts per point played in any match between the two, and went on to lose the match in three sets.
He attempted them frequently against Medvedev at the ATP Cup in 2020 (1 in 11 points played) but gave himself too much to pull off. The courts were fairly quick leading to an unforced error on 20% of Djokovic's drop-shot attempts and he went cross-court with the backhand drop-shot the majority of the time. Not only is this Djokovic's lesser-preferred drop-shot direction, it goes into Medvedev's backhand which he can arguably control with depth more easily than the forehand (despite it lacking spin).
THIS TIME...
The conditions were similar to Monte Carlo's (Djokovic alluded to using "the tactics of clay"). Djokovic used the drop-shot in 1 in 10 points, the most for any hard-court meeting between the two.
Djokovic used his favoured backhand drop-shot down the line the majority of the time (10 out of 13 times), far more often than at the ATP Cup.
Djokovic's level of execution on the drop-shot has arguably risen in the past two years - he didn't miss a single drop-shot in this match.
With a stalemate imposed from the baseline going into the tiebreak, here were the four drop-shots Djokovic used to set himself apart from Medvedev.
Djokovic (bottom) goes for his favoured drop-shot direction and executes to a high-enough level to stop Medvedev (top) ripping through the forehand.
Same again as Medvedev (top) goes for the re-drop.
The level of execution here is so high it's the first clean drop-shot winner for Djokovic (bottom) in the match.
The final drop-shot Djokovic (top) played in the tiebreak goes cross-court. Medvedev (bottom) is more comfortable getting the shot deep with pace from this wing leaving Novak with a very tough backhand down the line. This was the only point Djokovic lost in the second set where he played a drop-shot (1 of 8).
Astana 2022: How Novak Djokovic defeated Daniil Medvedev
There was plenty going on in this match but, for me, the tail-end was defined by the drop-shots Djokovic used to graft himself a slight advantage.
The conditions were extremely slow forcing Djokovic to come up with something a little riskier. Same old, same old, and I think we'd have seen Medvedev emerge victorious.
With Novak's drop-shot game refined over the years, he was confident enough to use this tactic under pressure in the tiebreak, giving away zero unforced errors on this shot throughout the match.
Djokovic didn't try to be unpredictable with the direction of the drop-shot, instead relying on the level of execution of his favoured drop-shot down the line to do the damage.
Knowing the context behind the shot-choice - how much the shot has been used throughout their rivalry, Novak's recognition of how the conditions would affect rally dynamics, the improvements Novak has made to this shot - makes for an interesting foot-note to Djokovic increasing his head-to-head against Medvedev to 7-4.
His ability to change up the formula with variety and to know when to take on a calculated risk will always be mightily impressive.
Look out for the Serb over the next few months...
HE'S HUNGRIER THAN EVER.
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