Hurkacz Gets Everything Right

Published: 2022-06-19 · By Matt Lin / The Racquet · Original Post ↗

Since I wrote plenty about Berrettini last week (and because I still very much think Berrettini is one of the best grass courters around right now and him winning Queens doesn’t change that), I thought I’d focus on Medvedev Hurkacz today.

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Hurkacz d Medvedev: 6-1, 6-4

Flawless performance from Hurkacz.

This match was quite simple. Hurkacz served his spots better than Medvedev (making his life much easier on serve), and put in an extremely good return performance. Hurkacz therefore ended up with an enormous edge in points that ended within 2-3 shots.

Unreturned 1st serves (this is a serving stat):

Medvedev 17%
Hurkacz: 57%(!)

Medvedev won just 63% of his 1st serve points today, which is the third worst total of his career on grass (funnily enough the 2nd worst came last Sunday against the good block returner of van Rijthoven in Holland).

In set one Medvedev didn’t have a single free point on serve (ie an ace/unreturned), Hurkacz returned every single serve.

Part of this was down to a 1st serve placement edge for Hurkacz. His accuracy, close to the centre line on the Deuce side especially, was stunning for most of the match (and tournament as a whole).

Medvedev struggled to land most of his 1st serves on the Deuce side particularly close to the centre line (circled in red on the left are lost 1st serve points today). This serve direction also happens to go into Hurkacz’s best return (backhand) and meant that Hurkacz started plenty of return points off with relatively neutral rallies at worst. Hurkacz’s serves on the other hand were laser accurate, landing far more aces/unreturned serves close to that centre line (circled in green on the right).

↑ Medvedev (serving) into a very comfortable Hurkacz backhand return spot, quite central in the service box. Hurkacz’s backhand return was excellent for most of the match, but I think Medvedev has had better placement days on that 1st serve.

↑ Same again. Medvedev, not exactly known for his forehand+1, struggled to put these kinds of balls away. As long as Hurkacz could somewhat nullify Medvedev’s 1st serve, he was winning a decent number of points as Medvedev often tried to press too much too soon, offered up attackable openings for Hurkacz.

Part of this is also down to their different return strategies.

Return position depth today:

Hurkacz: 1.5 metres behind the baseline
Medvedev: 4 metres behind the baseline

Medvedev’s deep return position helps him nullify plenty of opponents 1st serves. But it can also make it harder for him, especially on grass, to cut off angles.

Medvedev is pretty much out of shot here (circled in yellow) while returining the Hurkacz 1st serve (approx 4 metres behind the baseline). An exploitable issue with the deep return position, on grass especially, is that because Medvedev is worried about the angled wide serve from Hurkacz here, he ends up often cheating right to make sure he’d be able to reach the wide serve. This in turn leaves more space down the T, which is the spot that Hurkacz served especially well to today.

Hurkacz on the other hand, standing much closer to the baseline on both 1st and 2nd serve return, mostly cut off Medvedev’s angles effectively:

↑ Hurkacz (near end in green) might still seem quite far back while returning here, but at contact he’s less than a metre behind the baseline, enabling him to cut off the angle).

↑ Here’s Hurkacz on the left and Medvedev on the right. The pink arrows are just to indicate how wide both players are positioned on this 1st serve return. Medvedev deeper, cheating to the right so he can cover the wide angled serve but opening up more room down the T. Hurkacz closer to the baseline, having to take the ball earlier but able to cut off angles more effectively by being positioned more centrally.

This also meant that even when Medvedev managed to make a return off one of those wide serves, he was often in a terrible position to follow up that return:

↑ This was a very unconventional serve and volley from Hurkacz (far end) but because of how deep and wide Medvedev is hitting this return, Hurkacz can aim fairly safely with his baseline volley.

This also meant that Hurkacz’s average court position was on or around the baseline when points did develop, maintaining an extremely aggressive stance and mindset throughout the match and consistently rushing Medvedev. Medvedev’s court positioning was often more defensive until he decided to start stepping in for set 2.

I’m sure Medvedev would have liked to aim more for the Hurkacz forehand return today, but on the occasions where he did serve into the Hurkacz forehand, that shot responded very well:

↑ Hurkacz returning well off both wings today, here off his sometimes exploitable forehand. This really gave Medvedev nowhere to go with his serve today, seeing far fewer free points that he is used to.

The deep return position has seen lots of analysis and commentary (both right and wrong) over recent years since Nadal (mostly) popularised it, and players like Medvedev, Thiem, Zverev et al further embedded it as a clever and effective strategy in many cases. But the correct analysis on depth of return position is always that it’s entirely situational and very matchup/surface dependent. Medvedev’s return depth got him in trouble today against a player in great spot-serving form on grass.

The myth about Medvedev is that he builds his empire on rally grinding. In reality (as I’ve written much about), one of his biggest edges comes from possessing devastating early point aggression on the first 2 shots when serving (mostly because of the sheer power of his 1st serve), meaning he can often breeze through his own service games and then get stuck into return games. Today, that serving edge was often removed by Hurkacz’s excellent return performance, and Medvedev largely panicked about what to do next (he ended up losing plenty of probably questionable net rushes).

Once in the rally, Hurkacz also used his slice and net rushing effectively (winning 9/14 net points today):

↑ Hurkacz (far end) intelligently using his slice to coax a slice out of the Medvedev backhand. Medvedev only slices approx 7% of his backhands, and it’s usually the much easier shot for his opponents to deal with than his double handed backhand. Really nice net rush sneak here from Hurkacz on the back of his own deeper slice to get the break to start set 1.

But really the two players finished near equal on baseline points (Medvedev 27, Hurkacz 28). Hurkacz’s biggest edges came in the short points on his serve and return noted above:

Hurkacz’s forehand +1 was also excellent today, further helping his short point performance on serve.

I think Medvedev can play better/smarter than he did in this Halle final. And I’m also conscious that going into these finals (also last week in Holland) must feel rather unusual and bittersweet motivation-wise considering they’re usually preparation for Wimbledon, where he is banned. It’s probably all a bit deflating and directionless for Medvedev, win or lose, while playing on grass right now.

Hurkacz, alongside Berrettini whose comeback from hand surgery by winning Stuttgart and Queens back to back has been phenomenal, places himself up there for Wimbledon chances. The question as ever, will be whether they can clear the Nadal/Djokovic roadblock if they all get that far, or whether a rare non-Big 3 window may reveal itself. Today at least, Berrettini and Hurkacz were the two best grass courters on tour.

- MW

See you on Thursday.

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